air traffic control is not the real cause of airline delays

by:Powerful Toys     2019-12-12
Originally published in the Journal of the FAA association of managers, managing the sky, March/April 2017.
Reprinted with permission.
Airline delays are an ongoing problem and are very expensive for passengers, airlines and the government.
While many people are looking for a solution, there is something wrong with everyone, mainly due to the ATC system.
The problem that the ATC system needs to solve is not a delay.
ATC, however, received the blame and was very expensive.
The airline\'s delay is--
Airline delays can only be resolved internally by the airline.
ATC is responsible for the separation and safety of aircraft, but should not manage or sort the production assets of airlines ---its aircraft--
When airlines can get in and out of the national airport more efficiently and cheaper.
Today, the only reason ATC has completed the sorting task is because the airline has abandoned this role.
For passengers and airline shareholders, this misconception about the role of ATC and airlines has led to almost no improvement in airline operations
Time performance, even after the FAA spent billions of dollars in taxes and airlines adding billions of dollars in annual costs, by using extra time to cover up their bad punctuality
Other 20-
A century of industry believes that 20% of the non-defect is acceptable?
FAA is on the right train, the wrong track is further, and FAA is on the right train (
See, \"it\'s time --
S. FAA chief scientist Steve Bradford published traffic-based management in the January. /Feb.
2017 problems with managing the Sky)
The FAA went the wrong way.
FAA missed that time.
Based on traffic management (TBFM)
Driven by airline business
Solution based on traffic management (BBFM)
Listed as commercial spot from 2006 (COTS)
Compared with billions of dollars in spending proposed by the FAA, the product is worth tens of millions of dollars.
Secondly, unlike FAA\'s TBFM solution, the airline-
Satellite is not required to drive BBFM implementation
Tool-based, because the accuracy of the current navigation and communication tools is sufficient to achieve time-
Based on the arrival stream. Once the time-
With the current equipment, the basic process is in place, and only in this way will the new satellite tools benefit immediately.
Although the FAA may be driving the right train on the wrong track, it is managing their manymillion-
US dollar capital assets (
See \"Who controls Blue\" by Michael Boyd in March \". /Apr.
2014 problems with managing the Sky).
The solution can\'t be TBFM or just an acceleration/deceleration aircraft.
It\'s about speeding up the speed of the \"right\" aircraft (
Door available, delay, connection)
Let the \"right\" aircraft slow down (
No door. Wait early. )
Only the airline knows.
BBFM has already done so.
Finally, while both the FAA and I agree on the time
The difference between us, based on traffic that is critical to aviation, is that the FAA believes that this is the work of the government, through the controller.
A solution centered on controlling aircraft speed to manage the order of arrival.
Instead, I think the airline must first decide the most profitable solution for each of its aircraft based on the internal business needs (
Schedule, contact, door, staff, maintenance, etc. )
, Only in this way can coordination with ATC in practice
As an \"honest broker.
Choose airlines and ATC-
Coordinate the target time of the aircraft, and the airline uses the aircraft-centric solution to execute the target time. (
The pilot can set the required arrival time through the onboard computer function, and then the flight management computer will automatically adjust the throttle to achieve this RTA. )
Why did it take 35 years to deal with ATC and airline operations issues and as a commercial pilot (now retired)
, My conclusion is that most of the delays and congestion problems are on the airline, only through the real
The time management of their assets is not as an independent part, but as a whole.
System perspective.
But, you said, it\'s not like America. S.
Ministry of Transport (DOT)
The airline\'s delay is reported to be much lower.
For example, in the chart below, DOT reported the airline\'s delay at 5.
01% of total flights (27.
2% of total delays).
So how can I claim that airlines are the cause of most flight delays?
First, look at several examples of delays in the national aviation system (NAS)
And how airlines take proactive action to mitigate these problems.
Flights to San Francisco (SFO)
Delay of 20 minutes, the path is long due to congestion, reported as NAS delay.
Airlines should, rather than passively, wait for ATC to start measuring the arrival flow of the aircraft at about 200 miles from the airport, once the congestion problem is in place, use the cots bbfm process, speed adjustments are made to aircraft 500 miles or more from the airport to avoid obvious congestion coming.
It has been many years to use the equipment already on the plane to do this.
Contrary to FAA\'s TBFM recommendation, the airline\'s BBFM tool speeds up the tight-
Packaged SFO arrival queue (
Only airlines can identify \"suitable\" aircraft)
Unique BBFM difference.
Move the plane forward for a few minutes and the entire arrival queue will move forward.
In other words, at the front end of a crowded 30-plane arrival queue, move the \"right\" two planes forward for a few minutes, saving not only two minutes, but when the entire queue moves forward, each plane lined up behind the first two flights saved two minutes.
In this example, when the entire queue \"pulls\" forward, 60 minutes of flight time and delay are canceled, reducing delays, flight times, fuel and carbon emissions.
Also, if the airline couple speed up the \"correct\" aircraft (
Late, door, etc. )
As the \"right\" plane slows down (
Early, no door, etc. )
The airport will never be overloaded and congestion will disappear.
Our SFO arrival time was 20 minutes late because it was not finished yet.
What makes the problem even more complicated is that airlines arrange their planes, pilots and flight attendants respectively, so after landing, the pilots take one road and the flight attendants take another road, the plane sat waiting for the pilots and flight attendants of the other two flights.
When the new unit arrives, the plane will check and board the plane before flight, and the plane will leave the gate 25 minutes later.
Since each flight is independently planned, the flight from SFO to LAX is planned at normal speed/height.
However, considering the pressure to reduce fuel costs (
Cost center for another airline)
To save fuel, the crew slowed down and landed 29 minutes late.
Since the arrival time of the plane was later than expected, no one was there to park or open the cabin door, resulting in a 32-minute late arrival at the gate than the scheduled time.
Although it is difficult to believe that airline personnel do not have an accurate estimated arrival time (ETA)
, Look at the ETA accuracy of any airline app.
How often do you personally wait to park or open the gateway?
Can anyone imagine another industry closing a \"factory\" worth $100 million? i. e.
Park not far from the gate)
Want an employee for $30/hour?
Bottom line: In the current airline operations, flights are delayed all day.
By deploying a mature process known as operational excellence, the airline keeps the crew and aircraft together for a \"quick turn\" and is only 15 minutes late to get into operational excellence.
Next, the flight plan provides additional fuel for the pilot to allow low speed flight (BBFM)
It\'s only 10 minutes late to Los Angeles International Airport. DOT On Time).
Because the ramp crew is real.
In the fluid, dynamic production process, they are ready to guide the aircraft to the gate and move the highway to open the door of the aircraft to achieve a \"quick turn \".
\"By embracing operational excellence rather than two late legs, the flight returned to time after two late legs.
In other words, although DOT marks many delays as NAS or Late-to-the-
Most of the gate delays are prevented by airlines
Time command and control operations to manage their aircraft and other assets (Logistics thinking).
The airline can, the airline should, the airline we often hear from the FAA that the problem is the airline\'s schedulee.
\"You can\'t schedule 10 planes to land at eight o\'clock A. M.
And look forward to everyone on time.
\"It would be true if all 10 planes showed up at eight o\'clock A. M. , but this is not usually the case.
Even if the airline arranges the flight to minutes in order to avoid the scheduled arrival overlap, considering the airline\'s huge day --to-
Change in Daily arrival time (
Standard deviation of 8. 6 percent)
The likelihood of any flight arriving on time is low.
The answer to how the airline arranged for 10 aircraft to land at eight o\'clock A. M. and to ensure that all aircraft landed on schedule was that the airline tactically pushed the \"aircraft flow Day \", such a \"correct\" plane landed at 7: 51 a. m (
Assuming the arrival rate of 60 aircraft per hour at the airport)
The next \"right\" is at 7: 52, the third is at 7: 53, and so on.
No congestion, no ATC delays.
To do this, there needs to be a certain level of tactics.
Time control airlines currently have the tools to complete but choose not to do so.
Again, ATC is accused of delays that airlines can mitigate
Time, tactical action. Airlines could.
Airlines shouldAirlines don’t.
There is a general but inaccurate belief that there is often a situation of excessive capacity, overload and out of control at airports, resulting in poor driving conditions
Time performance.
Of course, the airport is crowded at some point in the day (
When the two planes land at the same time, even Boise is in excess capacity)
But this does not prevent delays and congestion.
For example, the reality of the FAA
Airport arrival time demand analysis shows available capacity--
Even at the busiest time-
But it\'s moving forward in time.
Unfortunately, for passengers, this ability to advance time is wasted because airlines do not \"pull\" \"right\" aircraft in a timely manner from a system perspective.
ATC is unable to know what is a \"correct\" aircraft unless the airline determines the \"correct\" aircraft and tells ATC. Airlines could.
Airlines shouldAirlines don’t.
Or, consider a strong downwind from west to east --
To Chicago O\'Hare (ORD)
Arrive 30 to 40 minutes in advance.
As I have experienced, most of these early arrivals from Western airports do not have gates, forcing ATC to park early arrivals all over the airport.
This in turn creates congestion for the departing, who need to set out to make room for those who arrive early.
Final result: the traffic was blocked and the person who arrived early was 20 minutes late.
Of course, ATC was blamed for improper ramp management.
The airline BBFM solution is to have the airline keep the \"correct\" upstream departure for ORD and slow down the \"correct\" aircraft in the air (BBFM)
In order to save fuel and arrive on time, thus avoiding overload of ATC system and causing traffic jams.
Of course, ORD ground ATC could have done better, but, like most congestion problems, the problem was obvious a few hours ago and the airline did not take any measures to mitigate it.
So when the ATC is blamed, the airline could have stopped it before the problem arose. Airlines could.
Airlines shouldAirlines don’t. Or consider. . . . . .
But you see.
In short, when capable of production capacity, the airline cancels the reality of the large number of arrival differences
They have tactical control over aircraft assets.
The result of the airline\'s inaction is that the airline\'s delay is greater than reported.
In the past 40 years, the ATC system in the United StatesS.
The government has spent billions of dollars to improve air traffic control and reduce flight delays.
However, as shown in the figure, the airline
Time statistics, even in the face of billions of dollars spent by the government on taxes and very expensive production buffers for airlines (
Increased scheduled block/door Time)
There has been no significant change since 1998. What twenty-
A century of industry believes that 20% of the non-defect is acceptable?
But what\'s worse, like DOT on-
Time performance is based on 14 minutes late (A14). Actual on-
Time performance (A0)
In the case of 15 percent, it was reduced by about 65% age points, which is an unacceptable 35% non-defect.
Even those years of that year. to-
The improvement of the year has more to do with the economy (2001 vs.
2002 and 2007 pairs2008/2009)
More than anything significantly improved by the airline or ATC system.
From 1970 to today, the government has led countless times, and less than a billion people have succeeded.
USD, MLS soup ATC items such as MLS, AAS, ISSS, GPS, fan, freefall light, CPDLC, Satcom, RNP, advertisingB, ADS-
C, ITC, SESAR, next gen and now privatization, many of which have been touted by ATC providers and airlines as \"end everything\" to address delays \". During this 40-
The FAA has failed to improve flight delays for a year, not because of a lack of attempts or funding.
The FAA has been working to improve the ATC system to reduce delays and congestion, and many very smart people are trying to solve the problem and putting billions of dollars in tax spending, however, it has little impact on the delay.
So, let\'s look at this from an ATC perspective.
ATC sees a lot of congestion and chaos (variance)
And determined to fix it.
They spent billions of dollars on ATC tools and new runways, but nothing improved.
The problem is that the ATC system is looking at local symptoms. -
Congestion/confusion around.
The real problem is that the non-hosted, highly variable aircraft flows that are randomly close to ORD.
In order to truly understand why variance causes a lot of congestion and confusion, thereby reducing airport throughput/capacity, the airline must strive to understand the queuing theory, I . E. e.
, As the demand approaches capacity, the time in the queue increases exponentially as the flow variance increases.
Also, while FAA\'s TBFM plans to \"flatten\" the arrival process in theory before it arrives, it is based on billions of dollars in tax/airline spending, still will not move the \"right\" aircraft in the \"right\" direction.
FAA\'s TBFM program also represents a huge issue of communication and controller workload.
Imagine a normal collision on the East Coast from ATL to BOS, and each eastbound aircraft requires a controller to sort the time.
This requires each controller to process a large number of sorted messages and time series of 10 to 15 aircraft while providing separation.
Instead, the BBFM solution has a pilot reading a message and satisfying an RTA (
Thinking time on the goal)
Give the controller time to safely provide separation, their final task.
The arrival flow problem can be visualized by treating the airport as a single entitye.
, A box, described by the line drawn between the arrival fixes (
Usually 90 degrees apart, 35 miles from landing).
If the box can accept 60 aircraft per hour (one per minute)
, Randomly allowing a highly variable flow rate of 90 aircraft per hour (
45 minutes in 30 minutes)
Enter the \"box\" and make sure the very expensive aircraft is in storage--30 NM final.
Manage the entrance to the \"box\" in \"correct\" aircraft order, and most of the inefficiency and cost of the current arrival (
Congestion, delay, blocking time, fuel, crew time, noise pollution, etc. )disappear. But wait--
There are too many variables to manage the arrival stream correctly.
Although a few days earlier, the predictability of arrival traffic in the first few hours of arrival increased exponentially.
In fact, airport demand, runway arrival and weather (yes, weather)
A few hours before landing, when there is time to manage the arrival stream and mitigate or eliminate potential congestion, it is highly predictable.
In addition, in today\'s \"small government\" and budget issues, why is the government willing to accept the blame for the internal production problems of airlines, and spend billions of dollars doing things that airlines could do for tens of millions of people 10 years ago?
Or, more importantly, why would any company so easily and unnecessarily cede control over its main production assets to the government?
Finally, measured by the billions spent and the lack of improvement in airline delays, most of the failures in history have been morebillion-
The US dollar ATC project further proves the government (i. e.
The FAA, the European control agency, the Canadian navigation agency, etc. )
Flight delays will never be resolved.
It\'s not their problem to solve.
This problem can only be solved by the airline itself.
Fortunately, there is a solution for passengers.
In order to reduce delays and costs quickly, airlines must be committed to operational excellence-
A real tactic.
Time management of airline assets (
Especially Aircraft)
Many other industries have accepted and successfully implemented (think Toyota).
Operational Excellence requires airlines to redefine their \"Operating Days\" from a system perspective rather than a decentralized approach to management now.
Operational Excellence requires real management of aircraft, crew, ramp services, catering, refueling and other aspects of the airline\'s \"operating day\"
Time, highly coordinated system, I. e.
The right part, the right place, the right time (Logistics thinking).
In order to operate better and eliminate competition (
Think about Toyota in the 1990 s)
Airlines must surpass 1950 a few decades ago. over-
System production process, and enter the system-
Focus, big data, twentyfirst century.
The airline must go beyond the simple cancellation of the flight and implement a command and control process that allows to reach 100% from the dead station within 30 hours.
Although we all hope that the 11 th event will never test our country again, having 100% capacity in 30 hours requires real
Time, tactical command and control within the airline\'s operations center, which will greatly improve the airline\'s 0 performance, prevent or significantly shorten, severe weather/recovery operations that are very familiar from days to hours.
Imagine an airline that can be reconfigured in realitytime (
Agile Manufacturing)
Their plane, crew, etc.
Bypass the weather-affected airport to get passengers to the promised place, closer to the promised time.
There is no magic here, only reasonable business practices. Big task? Of course. Doable? Absolutely! Profitable? Highly. Airlines could.
Airlines shouldAirlines don’t.
Unfortunately, as Mark Twain said, \"You know for sure, it won\'t cause you trouble.
For example, the airline \"definitely\" knows: However, as one industry after another, and two universities at three airports have been certified at the FAA --
Mission J project funded, these three
The above is called the fact, \"it\'s just not the case.
All three of the above are 100% mistakes, inaccuracies and mistakes.
Solution: The first step, the first way to lead the operational excellence is the leadership and vision of the airline, which means the leadership of implementing the system
Focus on internal change and beyond the vision of the current 1950 airline production process.
The first step is to make someone responsible.
It is incredible that the airline does not have people who are specifically responsible for cross-missions
Department responsibility/authority to put smiling passengers/bags on the side of the road of destination on time, faster, better and more profitable.
Until then, the airline will continue to pay attention to the local (
Silo on system)and government-
Led solutions that damage passengers, shareholders, employees and the environment.
In addition, it is necessary to lead operational excellence from top to bottom in order to articulate the vision and objectives, but to leverage the expertise of the people engaged in this work and implement it from the bottom up.
My suggestion is to draw a page from the production script: appoint a vice president of production.
Solution: Step 2, the process is a relatively simple production process from the \"day\" point of view.
Airlines accept raw materials at the front end (
People, luggage, goods, fuel, food, etc. )
, Do a lot of internal processing of these materials, and then spit out as a finished product at the other end-
Passengers/bags/goods on the roadside of the destination.
Moreover, quality airline products are passengers/bags/goods smiling on the roadside of their destination on time.
The low quality of the airline\'s products is not due to the poor operation of today\'s airline production process.
The sad fact is that the airline\'s \"production Day\" is not really running at all
Time from a system perspective.
It is only allowed.
Once the plane leaves the gate, the airline usually waits until it reaches the next gate.
As the sad events surrounding MH370 show, airlines will not actually track or manage their aircrafttime. Airlines could.
Airlines shouldAirlines don’t.
Airlines have been sluggish for decades
Time arrival performance proves that inertia is not a successful way to run complex and interdependent production processes.
In addition, airlines seek local solutions
Let\'s save fuel, let\'s improve our luggage, let\'s optimize our pilot\'s schedule, let\'s charge for our luggage, etc.
However, these local fixes often have a negative impact on the overall outcome.
On the contrary, as many industries have proven, it is systematic thinking and logistics that have won the day for passengers and shareholders.
\"If we have an improved system designed to improve individual components, you can absolutely ensure that the overall performance is not improved, which can be strictly proven \". (Russ Ackoff)
Professor akov\'s statement perfectly highlights the problems with airline/ATC solutions over the past 40 years ---
A local solution that attempts to improve system operation/efficiency.
In other words, when it comes to improving the current airline/ATC operations, we continue to work incorrectly to make the parts better without considering the impact of the system. Think Whack-a-Mole.
Once the leadership is in place, responsibility/authority across departments places passengers in the promised place, and when they are promised, the next step is to realize the vision of the actual system process.
First of all, considering that the aircraft is the core production process of the airline, it must be incorporated into statistical control. ix]
Instead of independent actions and random events (think Deming).
For example, when a fire occursand-
The process of forgetting can be useful for military missiles and disastrous for airlines.
The interdependent supply chain and logistics processes are completely new to the day-to-day operations of the aviation industry. e.
Airline roadsideto-
Suppress the movement of production processes, especially aircraft.
By using traffic management based on airline business (BBFM)
, An airline can constantly monitor each aircraft to understand the location of the aircraft at any given point in time, and more importantly, to know exactly where the aircraft will be, and when it will reach the future.
By taking ownership of flight delays and applying internal business objectives (
Schedule, door, maintenance, etc. )
Speed up the \"right\" aircraft, slow down the speed of the \"right\" aircraft, and airlines can reduce delays.
Once the airline considers its business needs and actual needs, decide what is best for its personal aircraft (
Airlines can already track all aircraft in flight)
Capacity, weather, etc.
It will electronically pass its required RTA to the ATC system as an \"honest broker\" to give fair access.
If the two planes want the same RTA, the \"honest broker\" will decide what is fair and send the approved RTA back to the airline for implementation.
It is critical to use RTA and aircraft to perform the target time, as this eliminates communication and controller workload issues, which makes the FAA\'s TBFM plan problematic at best.
In addition, bb-powered BBFM solutions allow real-time
Time ATC coordination to let the ATC system know the airline\'s needs for each of their aircraft, this way does not broadcast the potential commercial reasons for making this decision.
The system knows what the plane will do, but does not know why.
As already implemented and independently verified, while an airline can implement BBFM on its own to reduce delays for airlines, a better solution is an integrated solution for all arrivals to the airport
From a system point of view, select the \"correct\" aircraft and move in the right direction, and coordinate software and aircraft tools in real time with ATC
Time is a proof of operation (10 years)
Independent verification (FAA Task J)
COTS products that have been on the market for many years. (
Attila Airlines™It is a time-based, business-oriented aircraft traffic management system.
Attila Airlines™Optimize the business objectives of the airline (
Schedule, on-time performance, gate availability, fuel burning, speed, etc. )
The arrival process of the entire airline to a specific airport. )
Of course, I\'m not talking about a real plane. to-
The aircraft separation process, which is definitely something that the ATC system must keep.
However, sorting tasks must be a shared process where only individual airlines have business information that is profitable/efficiently completed. Starting with what airlines tactically want each of their planes to do in flight --by-
Fly base through the internal BBFM process. Airlines could.
Airlines shouldAirlines don’t.
Once each aircraft is stable, predictable and driven to the best business objectives, the airline should turn to the real business objectives
Time management and distribution of Gates.
If, depending on the exact ETAs of each aircraft, the gate is allocated three to five hours before landing, gate congestion, change and overlap will be minimized.
With the stability/predictability of the aircraft/gate package, third-
The level process is the airline managing all other \"one day\" operating elements (
Passengers, luggage, cargo, ramp, crew, food, maintenance, fuel, etc. )in real-
Time of flight/gate package.
In the end, the airline \"must know\", which is too difficult, too expensive to do.
The trouble is that this is not the case.
\"Airlines must create their own vision for the future around operational excellence, not just accept ATC\'s vision for the future.
The core of operational excellence is a relatively simple application. proven, real-
Supply chain logistics has increased profits.
It is clear that making any complex, interdependent process run on inertia can only lead to failure, which is what customers and employees see day after day, and sadly, they have begun to expect.
Not only does this have a huge financial impact on airlines, but the resulting confusion and differences are the biggest part of delays, environmental and ATC issues.
By adopting operational excellence, airlines can improve their actual level of operations
Performance between zero hours (A0)
From current of 85% reduced to 65% will daily on time difference reduced to
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